Wichita State is 7-1 against the spread the last eight times it's played as a favorite of six points or more. Dayton, meanwhile, is 8-1 ATS its last nine times out as an underdog of six points or more. Guess what the betting line is for Friday night's NCAA tournament matchup between the Shockers and the Flyers in Indianapolis, Indiana'Point spread: The Shockers opened as six-point favorites; the total is at 148, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 80.4-64.4 Shockers (College basketball picks on every game) (Download the NCAA tournament bracket)Why Wichita State can cover the spreadWichita State pulled the seasonal double in the Missouri Valley this year, winning both the regular season and conference tournament titles. The Shockers closed out their schedule with 12 straight victories, then breezed through three opponents in three days by an average of 20 points per game in the MVC tournament.So Wichita State is at the Big Dance for the sixth straight year. The Shockers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four first-round games.On the season Wichita State is shooting 47 percent from the field and 41 percent from three-point land, averaging 82 points per game. Defensively the Shockers are holding opponents to just 38 percent field-goal shooting, and they've out-rebounded six of their last eight foes.Why Dayton can cover the spreadDayton used a late-season nine-game winning streak to finish 15-3 in the Atlantic-10 and claim the regular-season conference crown. The Flyers then lost their first game in the conference tournament to Davidson last Friday but still earned an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. So they're making their fourth Big Dance appearance in a row.For the season Dayton is shooting 47 percent from the floor and 39 percent from long range, hitting the 80-point mark three times in the last five games. At the other end of the court the Flyers are limiting foes to 41 percent field-goal shooting.Smart betting pickWichita State is the lower seed, but a solid favorite, and owns several statistical advantages. The Shockers shoot the ball a little better than Dayton, play better defense and do a better job on the boards.But everything is relative, and perhaps the committee has it right; the Flyers are 7-2 SU and 5-3 ATS against teams that made the Big Dance this season, while Wichita State is only 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS versus tournament qualifiers. The smart money here likes Dayton plus the points.March Madness betting trendsThe total has gone over in 11 of Dayton's last 12 games.Wichita State is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against the Atlantic 10.The total has gone under in seven of Wichita State's last 10 games after an ATS win.All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Reports official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
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