Super Bowl LI is a battle between the No. 1 (Atlanta Falcons) and No. 2 (New England Patriots) offenses in football, per Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings.It comes as no surprise, then, that the over-under total is a Super Bowl record of 58, per OddsShark. New England is also a three-point favorite.Fifty-eight percent of bets have gone to New England minus the three points, while 55 percent favors the over.Joe Osborne of OddsShark listed some interesting facts in his Super Bowl LI Betting Primer. Namely, the over has won out in the last 11 games the Falcons have played in a dome. That will be the case Sunday, as NRG Stadium in Houston is an indoor facility. Furthermore, the last eight Falcons games have all gone over the over-under total.All signs may point to the over and a game that could go down to the wire, but here are six things to consider.1. The Patriots have allowed only 15.7 points per game all season, including playoffs. Yes, they have played a weak schedule, including the offensively challenged New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams, among others. But at some point, the fact that the Patriots defense has remained fairly consistent all year has to count for something.2. The Patriots have one of the best run-stuffing units in the NFL, ranking fourth in the league, per Football Outsiders.3. Three members of the secondary (cornerbacks Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler and safety Devin McCourty) all graded well, per Pro Football Focus. Butler finished fifth and Ryan tied for 12th in pass coverage among all cornerbacks, and McCourty finished as the fourth-ranked safety overall in the league. Their skill sets could help stymie a dynamic Falcons passing offense.4. The Falcons defense just played an exceptional NFC Championship game against a hot Packers offense, holding them to zero points through two-and-a-half quarters. The pass rush was fantastic, and the secondary flew to the ball and hit hard every time. Prior to that game, Green Bay had scored 30 or more points in six straight contests.5. That same Atlanta defense has been on a roll minus one quarter after their Week 11 bye. Note these numbers: 19, 14, 14, 13, 16, 32, 20, 21. Those are the numbers of points the Falcons defense has been responsible for in the last eight games. The 32 (from Atlanta's 38-32 win over New Orleans) is the eyesore, but the Falcons held the Saints to 13 points through three quarters that day before falling asleep.(The first 14 is from the Kansas City Chiefs' 29-28 win over Atlanta. However, the Chiefs scored a defensive touchdown, a touchdown on a fake punt with the special teams unit on the field and a "pick-two" that gave them the win, totaling 15 points.)6. Falcons edge-rusher Vic Beasley is a one-man wrecking crew. He amassed 15.5 sacks and six forced fumbles this year, both of which led the NFL. It's possible he recreates Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller's Super Bowl role from last season and lives in the Patriots backfield all day.These six notes add up to one fact: It's possible the game goes to the under. In fact, that's the guess (although I would not cash out your 401k and bet the over-under either way here).The take here is that New England covers and wins 31-24 in a contest that features the running backs staying busy all game. Specifically, expect Pats back LeGarrette Blount to pick up 20-plus carries in an effort to control the clock and keep Atlanta's offense off the field. The guess is that he's successful and leads the Pats to their fifth Super Bowl win.
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