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Patriots vs. Falcons: Super Bowl 2017 Betting Odds, Favorite and Winner Picks

Published by Bleacher Report on Mon, 30 Jan 2017


We're now less than a week away from the final chapter of the NFL season, as the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons are set to square off inSuper Bowl LI.For the Patriots, this is familiar territory, as quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick will be participating in their seventh Super Bowl together. On the other side, according to Pro Football Talk, the entire Falcons active roster has made just five Super Bowl appearances.To get you ready for Sunday's showdown, here's a look at all the TV viewing info and betting odds you'll need to prep for game day: When:Sunday, February 5, 6:30 p.m. ETWhere:NRG Stadium in HoustonTelevision:FoxOver/Under:58.5Spread:New England (-3)Moneyline:New England (-145) and Atlanta (+125)Props:Overall,halftime,Gatorade,national anthem,coin tossAll betting info provided by OddsSharkBetting StrategyThe Patriots are slight favorites in this matchup, but the small margin indicates this game could be considered closer to a toss-up. When a high-profile team with a national fanbase such as the Patriots plays on the biggest stage, the money tends to come in heavily on the known commodity.This year appears to be no different, as OddsShark reported that 60 percent of the bets against the spread are on New England.The oddsmakers are obviously aware of this trend and have to take factors such as various betting trends into account when setting the lines. Based on this knowledge, we can assume that if New England were genuinely considered a heavy favorite, the odds would be tilted even further in their favor.Knowing these trends can be useful if trying to employ thecontrarian betting strategy. This strategy certainly isn't foolproof, but when the money is pouring in on the high-profile team, it's often a good time to go against the grain, which in this case means taking the Falcons with the points.Key to the GameIn terms of strategy, one of the storylines of this matchup will be how the Falcons defense handles Tom Brady.Falcons head coach Dan Quinn was in this situation two years ago in the Super Bowl as the defensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks. According to ESPN NFL Matchup, Brady took advantage of the Seahawks defense when they blitzed:The Falcons have struggled at times to generate a consistent pass rushthey tied for 16th in the league with 34 sacks during the regular season.Vic Beasley is a serious pass-rush threat that the Patriots will need to account for, but the Falcons are lacking much of a threat beyond him. Beasley's 15.5 sacks accounted for nearly half the Falcons' total.Brady is exceptional at recognizing blitzes and taking advantage of weaknesses elsewhere. But the Falcons can't simply ignore that strategy and let him sit comfortably in the pocket all night. Quinn and defensive coordinator Richard Smith will need to pick their spots to blitz Brady and attempt to force him into mistakes. Final PredictionTom Brady and the Patriots offense receive much of the hype, but for the past few seasons, New England has been a defensive-minded team. They're capable of putting up points, but they struggle to keep up in high-scoring shootouts.Over the past three seasons, New England is just 2-5 when allowing 28 or more points.The Falcons don't have the same defensive abilities of the Patriotsthey've given up 28 or more points nine times this year alone. But due to their offensive firepower, they're 6-3 in those games.If quarterback Matt Ryan can keep the Falcons' red-hot offense rolling, the Patriots may simply be unable to keep up.Prediction: Falcons 31, Patriots 28
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