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NFL Week 17 Picks: Prop Bets, Vegas Lines, Over-Under Predictions and Advice

Published by Bleacher Report on Wed, 28 Dec 2016


Week 17 in the NFL is a bit of a mixed bag in terms of matchups.Playoff teams are faced with the dilemma of starting their key players and risking injury, or sitting them and hoping it doesn't throw off the chemistry they've spent 17 weeks building.Those teams that aren't making the playoffs already know that and face the quandary of playing in a game where winning will lower their draft stocknot that players who are fighting for their jobs care about where their team might pick in the draft to replace them.Still, Week 17 provides the opportunity for bettors to cash in on some games that will be impacted by the circumstances of the season's final week.Here's a look at the complete schedule and odds, along with a closer look at two games and the latest prop odds on the MVP race from OddsShark.Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh SteelersUnder normal circumstances, this would be a blowout.The Steelers possess one of the best offenses in football, and the Browns, well, they aren't very good at the sport.However, the Steelers have no impetus to play Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell or Antonio Brown on offense or any of their studs on defense. The team has already sewn up the division and the No. 3 seed regardless of the Week 17 outcome, and it is taking on the lowly Browns after all.That lowly Browns team, by the way, is still willing to fight. Cleveland picked up its first win of the season against the San Diego Chargers last week. While it might not seem like much, head coach Hue Jackson described the state of his team after the win. Afterward, he and veteran tackle Joe Thomas shed tears of joy, according toZac Jackson of Pro Football Talk:I was emotional for our players. I know how hard this group has worked and I know how hard it has been for these guys to go out every week and give it everything they have and come up short and to be the brunt of jokes and to be talked about and people saying we were going to be 0-16 and there were parades [planned] and this and that. I just thought all that emotion just came to a head.Coming off an emotional win like that, it's hard to envision the young Browns just laying an egg against a rivaleven if that rival isn't likely to give the Browns its best shot.The result should be a game that is much closer than it would be if the Steelers were at full capacity or playing for something more.Expect the Browns to fight to the bitter end, even if they ultimately come up short.Prediction: Steelers 24, Browns 21 Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego ChargersIf the Chargers find a way to cover the spread in this one, it will be the upset of the week.On one hand, you have a team with an elite defense and an offense that appears to be clicking on all cylinders. On the other side of the matchup, you have a team that just lost to the Browns.How this line is even within a touchdown is confusing.The Chiefs have secured a playoff spot, but the opportunity to win the No. 2 seed still exists. A win in this game and a loss for the Derek Carr-less Raiders against the Denver Broncos would give the Chiefs a bye week and a home game. That's plenty to play for.Meanwhile, the Chargers are as listless as any team right now. Philip Rivers and Co. put up only 17 points against a Browns defense that is 31st in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. The loss just added to a streak that is now at four, as the Chargers have gone winless in December.Besides the trends that both teams are on, the Chiefs have dominated this matchup as of late. As Chiefs.com's BJ Kissell noted, the Chiefs have taken care of the Chargers in convincing fashion over their last five matchups:With the Chiefs owning the historical advantage, being the better team and having something at stake, this game shouldn't be competitive. The Chiefs are one of the safest bets on the slate this week.Prediction: Chiefs 28, Chargers 10 MVP Prop BetsWeek 17 marks the last chance to get those MVP bets in as the race comes to a close. Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott enters the final week as the favorite in the clubhouse, but there's still some competition as the margin of error closes during the final week.Here's a look at the latest odds from OddsShark:If you're looking for someone to back besides Elliott, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan probably has the best case with the most room to grow Sunday.Ryan has been as statistically dominant as one could hope for in an MVP candidate. He's in the top three inpassing yards, completion percentage, yards per attempt, passing touchdowns and quarterback rating while leading the Falcons to a 10-5 record, a playoff berth and a potential first-round bye.According to NFL research, Ryan's passer rating might be the biggest harbinger of his MVP odds:He also has one of the biggest stages in Week 17 to make his final statement that he deserves the award. The Falcons need to beat the Saints at home to clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and a big day could be in store for the Atlanta signal-caller. The Saints have allowed a 95.4 rating to opposing quarterbacks, 25th in the league this season.Elliott is the MVP favorite for a reason. His numbers this season are mind-boggling, and he's on the No. 1 team in the NFC. However, LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson are the only two running backs to win the award in the last decade.A bet on Ryan is a bet that the trend of quarterbacks winning the award will continue. He is the most deserving QB candidate for leading the Falcons to a successful regular season.
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