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Premier League Preview: How the Festive Fixture Pile-Up Could Shape Title Race

Published by Bleacher Report on Fri, 23 Dec 2016


Given the ink was still drying on the season's festive fixture list when Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp started moaning about it, it's tempting to conclude maybe he's a just a little wistful over what he has left behind.Who wouldn't be' While the biggest conundrum facing his one-time Bundesliga counterparts over the month-long winter break in Germany is which hoppy delight to fill bounteous stein glasses with, Klopp must weigh up how to ensure his players come through a run of three matches in seven days unscathed, including two in less than 46 hours.In a compressed piece of Christmas scheduling, his players have just four days to rest between three games, the second-fewest of any Premier League club. Only Southampton are worse off in terms of recovery time, with Claude Puel's side afforded just three days respite. Safe to say the Saints are unlikely to be marching in this Christmas; they'll be lucky if they can manage a crawl.A nice piece of investigative work by StatsBomb's James Yorke has unearthed four-day discrepancies in the time Premier League clubs have been allocated to rest in between the three fixtures each will play over the festive periodstarting on Boxing Day and running through until January 4.While Klopp probably thinks Bad Santa must have compiled the forthcoming fixture pile-up, Chelsea boss Antonio Conte will look at his own side's schedule and be more pleased with himself than a John Lewis Christmas ad.It has been reported the exuberant Italian pushed Buster the Boxer off that bloody trampoline to have a go himself after learning his players would have a total of seven days rest between matches against Bournemouth, Stoke City and Tottenham Hotspur.As Chelsea head into the busiest period of the season with a six-point advantage over Liverpool at the Premier League summit, courtesy of an 11-game winning run since switching to a 3-4-3 formation, the last thing any of their rivals would have wanted was to see them given a fixture list gift-wrapped, replete with a big blue bow.The table-toppers welcome Bournemouth to Stamford Bridge on Boxing Day, before being granted four days off prior to the visit of Stoke City on New Year's Eve. It's then another three days on the couch, whichwhen taking into consideration ITV's ad breaksshould be just about enough time to get to the end of The Great Escape, before they make the short trip across the capital to play Tottenham.Conte will have put in more miles this year buying his Christmas presents than his side will travelling for the next three games. Not having to leave the radius of your own farts over the festive period surely has to be significantly advantageous. Figuratively, that is.While there has been no murmuring of foul play, and rightly so given the quirks of the English fixture list predate Adam being tempted by Eve on a Premier League rest day, it appears Chelsea have been fortuitous with how their matches are spaced out.Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United join Liverpool in only having a day between their second and third matches, with Tottenham granted two. Chelsea have three.It's a bit like telling your kids you love them both the same, before buying one a Ferrari Testarossa and the other a Ferrero Rocher.Given consistency in selection has been key in Chelsea's run of 11 victories on the bounce, that Conte should probably not have to make tweaks to his starting XI is a huge bonus. No Premier League manager has made fewer changes than the Italian this season, and it seem unlikely fatigue will be a problem between now and January 4 either.If Klopp were to name the same side for Liverpool's games against Manchester City and Sunderland, he would be accused of being reckless. Which, in fairness to the German, seems somewhat odd.In October, via theGuardian, he insisted his bah-humbug Scrooge routine was solely due to concern over his players' welfare and not born from cultural differences between English and German football.Though he argued there are definite gremlins in the system when holding court on the issue: "I understand traditionI would never say Boxing Day is not a good idea as I love it and I have absolutely no problem. But now having a matchday with two days between, there should be another possibility."As Klopp is probably well aware, the first-ever football match between two separate clubs took place on Boxing Day. Hallam FC lost 2-0 to Sheffield FC onDecember 26, 1860.If it is any consolation, Jurgen, I'd rather be watching Its a Wonderful Life, too.Television demands mean Liverpool's game against Manchester City at Anfield on New Year's Evearguably the pick of the festive footballhas been moved to a 5:30 p.m. kick-off. They travel to the north-east to play Sunderland on January 2 just 45-and-a-half hours later.Klopp's ire is exacerbated by Liverpool playing Stoke City on December 27as opposed to Boxing Daymeaning they have a day fewer to prepare for the big one against Manchester City than their opponents.The Reds manager reiterated his concern about the strain such demands put on players when interviewed on Saturday's Football Focus (h/t Eurosport):December 27, 31, no problem, that's completely OK and a normal rhythm.But then to play again on the second [of January] makes no sense.I am a football fan, I would like to watch football everyday but if you do it, after four weeks, you cannot do it any more. The only thing is you have to accept the problems you cause with things like this.Pep Guardiola said exactly the right thing about this. It's not about coming from Europe and saying 'let's do it different'. It's about what is right or not right.It's part of the game that you always need to be ready but you need the boys for it. I care about the boys. For me it's no problem to play a game every dayI don't have to run. But the players have to run. In this case against City on the 31st and then Sunderland on the 2nd.Klopp has cause for concern. He had similar reservations last season, his first in the Premier League. Losing Philippe Coutinho and Dejan Lovren to hamstring injuries in early January meant at the time he had six of 11 players missing due to the same complaint, drawing accusations of overworking players unaccustomed with how much Gegenpressing would take out of them.Twitter's resident Injury Head Prefect, aka former Wales assistant manager Raymond Verheijen, thought all his Christmases had come at once."Liverpool manager Klopp caused 20 hamstring injuries in 10 months but keeps blaming external factors for injuries," the Dutchman tweeted at the time, before filling in the injury spreadsheet he found glowing at the foot of his bed on Christmas morning.If Liverpool are beset by injuries again over the festive period, Klopp on this occasion may just have a case if he cites external factors in mitigation.Chelsea (1st, 43 points)Arsenal's all-time English record of 14 consecutive wins is starting to look distinctively doable for Chelsea.If they take a maximum haul from their next three matches, Conte's side would have the record for a single season, with Arsenal's run having overlapped the end of the 2001-02 campaign with the start of 2002-03.Their last three victories have come via just a solitary goal, with 1-0 wins procured against West Bromwich Albion, Middlesbrough and Crystal Palace. The indication is that even mid-range sides are starting to work out how to slow them down, even if they can't stop them.The Boxing Day suspensions of Diego Costa and N'Golo Kante won't help, but even non-believers would probably concede to having been won round if Bournemouth leave west London with a point or more. Likewise, you would need to hit the eggnog pretty early to fancy Stoke's chances.Key to the festive periodperhaps even key to this season's Premier League per secould be the Tottenham game at White Hart Lane. Win that one, on top of the other two, and it really will be Chelsea's to lose.Conte has no problem with title talk, per The Telegraph: "I don't trust the people when they say, 'There's pressure when you're top.' I prefer the pressure of being top of the table. We earned this position. Now it's important to keep it. It's not the first time for me or my players."As an aside, even taking into account the fact how bad Chelsea were last season was almost as surprising as how good Leicester City were, it's still quite the stat that Conte's side are 25 points better off at this stage of the campaign than last. Fixtures: Bournemouth (h), Dec. 26; Stoke City (h), Dec. 31; Tottenham Hotspur (a), Jan. 4Position at this stage last season: 15th, with 25 pointsfewerRest days between matches over festive period: Seven Liverpool (2nd, 37 points)Klopp may just be a smiling Jose Mourinho in terms of his grumpiness, but deep down, he will be delighted with how the season is panning out on Merseyside.No side can match them in terms of firepower, with 41 goals scored including more than a handful that would look just as at home hung in Tate Liverpool as they would being marvelled over at Anfield.Daniel Sturridge's match-winning assist coming off the substitutes' bench in the Merseyside derby on Monday could kick-start his campaign at just the right time, with top goalscorer Sadio Mane possibly missing four matches due to Africa Cup of Nations commitments with Senegal.In a perverse way, Klopp may be even more fearful of the Stoke and Sunderland games than Manchester City, given Liverpool's only defeats this season have come against Burnley and Bournemouth.Key for Liverpool will still to be on the coattails of Chelsea when people start to take their decorations down.Fixtures: Stoke City (h), Dec. 27; Manchester City (h), Dec. 31; Sunderland (a), Jan. 2Position at this stage last season: 9th, with 13 points fewerRest days between matches over festive period: FourManchester City (3rd, 36 points)Just as primary school playgrounds are split between those who still believe in Santa and those who don't, the Premier League community is made up of those that worship at the altar of Pep Guardiola and those that don't.When taking into account the Catalan's reputation and 150 million spend over the summer, it's hardly surprising people have been underwhelmed by City thus far, but it's worth pointing out they are only a point off Liverpool as it stands.Last weekend's win at Arsenal should set the standard for the rest of the season. If they can produce a similar performance at Anfield on New Year's Eve it could prove to be quite the statement for Guardiola and Manchester City heading into 2017.Either way, if Guardiola can sort out that defence before the turn of the year Manchester will have witnessed its own Christmas miracle.Fixtures: Hull City (a) Dec. 26; Liverpool (a) Dec. 31;Burnley (h) Jan. 2Position at this stage last season: 3rd, with four points fewerRest days between matches over festive period: FiveArsenal (4th, 34 points)That didn't take long. Two defeats in as many matches have reduced the club with the least hysterical board and (some of) the most hysterical supporters into a state of risible hysteria.Here's one for the doom-mongers: of the current top six, Arsenal are the only side to have fewer points than at this stage last season.Still, should Arsenal win their next three distinctly winnable matches, all will no doubt be good again. North London was put into a state of emergency after the opening-weekend defeat to Liverpool, but no manager has the knack of keeping the wolves from the door quite like Arsene Wenger. When he needs to pull out a run of results, invariably he does it.That's why he's still Arsenal manager.Mesut Ozil is similarly under pressure after being accused of sauntering through matches of late. He's not exactly Bryan Robson-like when he's on-song either, but it's nonetheless still quite the downturn in fortunes for a player who, just a few weeks ago, most supporters were arguing his demands of 250,000 a week (per Matt Hughes of The Times) and the moon on a stick fortnightly were more than reasonable.Other than Manchester United, it's fair to say Arsenal have the easiest run of matches over the festive season.Fixtures: West Bromwich Albion (h), Dec. 26; Crystal Palace (h), Jan. 1; Bournemouth (a), Jan. 3Position at this stage last season: 2nd, with two points moreRest days between matches over festive period: Six Tottenham Hotspur (5th, 33 points)After last season's unexpected title tilt, Tottenham have the look of a bright-but-not-brilliant kid who was told to apply to Oxbridge by an overenthusiastic teacher but then didn't even get an interview.Signing Moussa Sissoko on a whim for 30 million was the panic-buy equivalent of purchasing every bunch of flowers on a garage forecourt having only remembered your wedding anniversary on the way home from work.A fruitless UEFA Champions League campaign when coupled with a serious injury to Harry Kane, and loss of form for Dele Alli, has made for a season in which it would be hard to argue Spurs haven't gone backwards.Except, that is, for the fact they are four points better off than at the same stage last season, and they have only lost twice in the league all campaignto Chelsea and Manchester United.Mauricio Pochettino will see his side's festive fixtures as being among the trickiest of any of the top six. Away days at both Southampton and Watford are far from easy, while a home game against Chelsea promises to be white-hot.If Spurs want to be in the mix in May a return of six points is likely required.Fixtures: Southampton (a), Dec 28; Watford (a), Jan. 1;Chelsea (h), Jan 4.Position at this stage last season: 4th, with four points fewerRest days between matches over festive period: FiveManchester United (6th, 30 points)And just like that, Jose Mourinho is happy again.Having spent the majority of the season looking about as content as a vegan made to wear that God-awful Lady Gaga meat dress, both he and his Manchester United side have come to life. Maybe there's a link between the two.Unbeaten in 10 games in all competitions and with noises coming out of the Old Trafford boardroom suggesting Mourinho could stay in Manchester beyond the terms of his existing deal, per Jamie Jackson of the Guardian, it looks as though manager and club may have a little fire in their bellies again. It has been a long time coming.Zlatan Ibrahimovic has been the catalyst, and if he is the flat-track bully he's been accused of being this season, Sunderland, Middlesbrough and West Ham United look like prime prey as he aims to add to the 16 goals he has managed thus far.Ifand it's a big if given the number of false dawns that have set over Old Trafford since Sir Alex Ferguson moved upstairs in 2013United take nine points from the next nine, there's every chance they could head into the January intermission for the FA Cup third round in a Champions League spot.Mourinho thinks they can do even better. With the bit between his teeth, it's possible.Fixtures: Sunderland (h), Dec. 26; Middlesbrough (h), Dec. 31; West Ham United (a), Jan. 2Position at this stage last season: Fifth, with a point fewerRest days between matches over festive period: Five
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