With a rookie starting at quarterback, the Dallas Cowboys began this year under the radar and covered nine of the first 10 point spreads they encountered. But word got out, the spreads got bigger and Dallas is now 0-4 against the spread over its last four games. On Monday night, division leaders will collide when the Cowboys host the Detroit Lions.Point spread: The Cowboys opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark(line updates and matchup report).NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.1-13.7, Cowboys (NFL picks on every game)Why the Lions can cover the spreadThe Lions are looking to rebound after having their five-game winning streak snapped by a 17-6 loss to the New York Giants last week, with quarterback Matthew Stafford playing through a finger injury. Detroit only trailed New York 10-6 before the Giants iced the game with a touchdown with just under six minutes to go.For the day, the Lions actually outgained New York, 324-300, but turned the ball over twice inside the Giants' red zone. Still, Detroit has outgained each of its last four opponents.Prior to last week's defeat, Detroit had won eight of its previous nine games, going 7-2 ATS in the process, with two of those victories coming on the road, at Minnesota and New Orleans.At 9-5 on the season, the Lions lead the NFC North by a game over Green Bay, and they get the Packers at Ford Field in the regular-season finale next week.Why the Cowboys can cover the spreadThe Cowboys bounced back from a 10-7 loss to those same Giants two weeks ago to beat Tampa Bay last week, 26-20. Dallas spotted the Buccaneers an early field goal, scored the next 17 points to take a lead into halftime, fell down 20-17 in the third quarter but rallied to score the last nine points for the victory.On the day, the Cowboys outgained Tampa Bay, 449-276; outrushed the Bucs, 185-52; held a 36-24 advantage in time of possession; and won the turnover battle, 4-1. About the only thing Dallas didn't do was cover the spread as a seven-point favorite.The Cowboys have now outrushed each of their last 13 opponents.At 12-2, Dallas can clinch the NFC East title and the top seed on the NFC side of the playoff bracket with one more victory.Smart pickThe Cowboys own a big advantage with their running game, but as mentioned above, inflated spreads are taking a toll on their ability to make money. Also, both teams have played a bunch of close games this season. Twenty-one of their 28 combined contests have been decided by one score or less. The betting value here at online sports betting sites lies with the Lions.Betting trendsThe total has gone over in five of the Lions' last six games against the Cowboys.The Lions are 3-1 ATS in their last four games on the road against the Cowboys.The Cowboys are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games at home against teams with winning records.All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.
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