Camellia Bowl Betting: Toledo vs. Appalachian State Odds, Analysis and Pick

The Toledo Rockets are 2-0 both straight up and against the spread in bowls over the last two seasons, including a win and a cover against one Sun Belt outfit two years ago. Toledo hopes to make it three bowl wins in a row against another SBC team, conference co-champion Appalachian State, in the third edition of the Camellia Bowl on Saturday in Montgomery, Alabama.Camellia Bowl point spread: The Rockets opened as 2.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 38.2-35.0 Mountaineers (College football picks on every game)Why the Toledo Rockets can cover the spreadThe Rockets had won six of seven, but lost their regular-season finale to eventual MAC champion Western Michigan 55-35. Toledo only trailed the unbeaten Broncos by a field goal well into the second quarter but let things slip away from there. The Rockets actually outgained WMU on the day by 11 yards, but three turnovers led directly to 21 Broncos points.Just before that, though, Toledo had won three straight games by an average of almost 19 points per contest. The Rockets have also outgained nine of their last 10 opponents.On the season Toledo ranks fourth in the country in total offense at 530 yards per game, averaging 329 through the air and 201 on the ground.Why the Appalachian State Mountaineers can cover the spreadThe Mountaineers own eight wins in their last nine games including a 37-7 romp over New Mexico State in their regular-season finale, earning them a share of the Sun Belt championship. Appalachian State grabbed a 17-0 first-quarter lead on the Aggies and cruised from there, on its way to the cover as a 20-point favorite.On the day the Mountaineers nearly tripled up on New Mexico State in total yardage (604-240), outrushed the Aggies 384-148 and dominated time of possession by a 38/22 margin. Appalachian State has now outgained and outrushed eight of its last nine opponents.The Mountaineers are also the defending Camellia Bowl champions, thanks to their 31-29 victory last year over another MAC team, Ohio.Smart pickThese teams are evenly matched but while Toledo owns the advantage on offense, Appalachian State holds the edge on defense. And in cases like this the better defense is usually the better bet. The smart money on the college football lines in this spot rides on the Mountaineers.Betting trendsThe total has gone over in four of Appalachian State's last five games against teams with winning records.Appalachian State is 1-3 ATS in its last four games.Toledo is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games.All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Reports official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
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