The College Football Playoff Committee got it right this season when it named the Clemson Tigers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Michigan State Spartans and Oklahoma Sooners as the four best teams in the country.What's in question is whether they should be ranked in that order.Per Odds Shark, No. 1 Clemson is a slight underdog to the No. 4 Sooners, while No. 2 Alabama is more than a touchdown favorite against the No. 3 Spartans.Let's take a look at the full schedule and odds for the two semifinal games as well as some predictions for what should be must-see TV:Sooners Will Outlast Undefeated Tigers, Cover in the ProcessNo. 1 Clemson Tigers (+1.5) vs. No. 4 Oklahoma SoonersClemson is the undisputed No. 1 team in the country. The Tigers passed all 13 tests put in front of them this season, knocking off three Top 10 teams in the process.Yet they are not the favorite against Oklahoma, the lowest-ranked team in the CFP.Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney didn't seem to care too much about the odds, and he had high praise for his opponent during a Dec. 6 press conference, perJoshua Friemel of the Dallas Morning News:Ah, shoot. These four teams in this final four, you're splitting hairs. Whoever is one is one, two or three doesn't matter. All of these teams are capable of winning on any given day. That's why we're in the final four. We'll just try to do the best we can these next few weeks [and] get a good plan. And we know that we'll have to play the best four quarters of the year. That's what these games are all about. You don't have a lot of margin for error certainly when you're playing a team that is as hot as Oklahoma. They're probably playing the best football of anybody in the country right now.The spread was higher when the matchup was first announced with some lines ashighasfour points. Those wagering on the game obviously showed respect for the Tigers as the spread has moved closer to a pick 'em.It seemed a little odd that an undefeated team with a quarterback in Deshaun Watson, who finished third in Heisman Trophy voting, could be more than a field-goal underdog. But as even Swinney alluded to, the Sooners may be playing better than any team in the country right now.Their quarterback, Baker Mayfield, finished just one spot behind Watson for the Heisman Trophy and has gone from walk-on to superstar in what seems like an instant. While preparing to sit out the 2014 season after transferring from the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Mayfield dominated the Oklahoma spring game. From there, he has taken off, and he said it motivated him to be the player he is today, per the Associated Press (via theBoston Herald):I don't think I can even put a word or a number to how much it's fueled me. I sat out and watched enough football last year to make me as hungry as I want to be for the rest of my life. That's kind of what drives me day in and day out, is what I had to sit out and watch last year.It's Mayfield's play, coupled with the fact Oklahoma finished the season with three straight wins over ranked teams, an overall seven-game win streak and an average of 52.0 points per game during the streak, that has them as favorites to win the game.Prediction: Oklahoma wins, 35-31.Spartans Will Beat Spread, Not AlabamaNo. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-9.5) vs. No. 3 Michigan State SpartansMichigan State lost one game this season by a single point to the Nebraska Cornhuskers. According to this spread, it should not only lose, but it should fall by nearly a touchdown and a field goal.It's certainly rare air for the Spartans, but playing a team like Alabama is as well.The Crimson Tide have the No. 1 Rating Percentage Index (RPI) per RealTimeRPI.com. In 11 games against teams ranked outside the RPI top 10, the Spartans have won by an average of 13.2 points. In two games against teams ranked in the top 10 (Ohio State Buckeyes and Iowa Hawkeyes), that margin drops to 3.0.So while playing the top-ranked RPI team and No. 2 CFP-ranked team is certainly cause to be an underdog, 9.5 points seems like an awful lot.Alabama won 11 games by at least 10 points this season, but only two came against teams currently ranked in the CFP Top 25. In two other matchups against ranked squadsthe No. 23 Tennessee Volunteers and No. 12 Ole Miss Rebelsthey won by five, and lost by six, respectively.The disrespect hasn't seemed to bother Michigan State too much, and safetyDemetrious Cox has decided to embrace the role, per the Associated Press (via the Times Union)."I would rather be the underdog, I guess," Coxsaid. "It's a better feeling when you have to prove people wrong."It's a good mindset to have, but Alabama head coach Nick Saban always has his players in the mindset of winning, and he has some talented ones who believe they can win.Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry should be able to set the pace for the game with a strong ground game and outlast a talented Michigan State team that has been vulnerable against top teams, but predicting a blowout here wouldn't make sense.Quarterback Connor Cook (24 touchdowns, five interceptions) will be able to put up enough offense to keep it close, but Alabama will power its way to a win en route to a trip to the National Championship Game.Prediction: Alabama wins, 24-20.All odds per Odds Shark.
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