The NFL always gets soooo predictable by Week 16, right' For example, all the Steelers had to do to stay in the thick of the playoff hunt was travel to Baltimore, trounce the Ravens' Triple-A affiliate and...Whoops. The Ravens did the trouncing.OK, all the Patriots had to do was force overtime against the feisty Jets, march down the field and...Wait: Matthew Slater said the Patriots would do what after winning the coin flip'Well, at least the Panthers were in position to beat the Falcons, clinch home-field advantage and pursue perfection. All they had to do was cover Julio Jones and...They didn't cover Julio Jones.Hey, the Seahawks are reliable, especially at home! All they had to do was beat up the comically terrible Rams and...Uh-oh. The Rams did all the beating up.So much for predictability.If you expected the front-runners to coast through Week 16, lock up playoff seedings, then spend Week 17 in power-saver mode, slip-up Sunday came as a shock.The Patriots and Panthers now have something to play for next week, as do the runners-up in each conference. The AFC Wild Card is still a three-team race.This weekend provided some clarity: The Redskins won the NFC East by going from "least worst" to "hey, they aren't so bad at all." The Bengals won the AFC North by default when the Steelers lost. But there are previously unthinkable scenarios still at play. Heck, the Colts are still alive somehow.There were so many upsets on slip-up Sunday that if you are a true believer in momentum you may be betting on a Texans-Cardinals Super Bowl.That's not going to happen. But the upsets weren't meaningless bumps in the road to glory, either. The contenders that lost looked pretty bad. Some suffered injuries. Others displayed weaknesses that have not been seen during extended winning streaks.Here's how Sunday's upsets rank, from most upsetting (from a playoff standpoint) to least upsetting. Stunning results aside, no one should be pushing the panic button yet. Except perhaps the first team on our list...Steelers (20-17 loss to Ravens) Why It's UpsettingRyan Mallett' You lost to Ryan Mallett'A playoff berth is now in doubt: The Steelers are a game behind the Jets and Chiefs.The Steelers defenders looked vulnerable all game to the run and pass. Remember, they were facing players who generally don't see any action after the second preseason game, yet the Ravens were 9-of-18 on third downs and didn't turn the ball over once.Ben Roethlisberger has thrown five interceptions in the last three weeks, with a long pass of just 31 yards during that span.Don't Be So UpsetSteelers-Ravens games belong in their own separate category from normal NFL games.Mallett was an unknown commodity playing for career and reputation rehabilitation. The Ravens irregulars were playing for their jobs to impress a coach who, unlike the coaches of many other losing teams, is guaranteed to still be making roster decisions next year. Games like this happen.The Steelers suffered no major injuries. They still have the best skill-position talent in the AFC playoff picture.Bottom LineThe Steelers now need help from either the Bills (against the Jets) or Chargers (against the Broncos if Denver loses Monday versus Cincinnati).Both teams have a little spoiler in them, and the Steelers should steamroll the Browns.If they miss the playoffs, the Steelers will curse the Ravens for their unlikely season sweep. It wouldn't be a Steelers season without a little cursing of the Ravens.Seahawks (23-17 loss to Rams)Why It's UpsettingThere's a huge difference between being seeded fifth and being seeded sixth in the NFC playoffs. Even with the Redskins playing well, the Seahawks would rather face them, by earning the fifth seed, than face the winner of the NFC North.Next weekend's Seahawks-Cardinals game is therefore meaningful. The Cardinals are Babadook scary right now.Seahawks backs combined for 21 yards on 16 carries, plus a costly fumble. Suddenly, the offense does not look A-OK without Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls.Wilson endured four sacks. Center Patrick Lewis delivered two Jaguars-style blooper snaps. Any indication the Seahawks offensive line is reverting to early-season form is a cause for concern.Don't Be So UpsetSpoiling other teams' playoff bids is one of only two things the Rams do really well.Beating up your offensive line with their defensive line is the other thing. The Rams line is better than most of the lines the Seahawks will face in the playoffs.Rainy conditions were a randomizing factor.Bottom LineThe Rams were to the Seahawks this year what the Ravens were to the Steelers. There is one key difference, however: The Seahawks have clinched a playoff berth.The Seahawks should still smoke their first-round playoff opponent. But the team that played Sunday will be no match for the Panthers or Cardinals.Patriots (26-20 loss to Jets)Why It's UpsettingHome-field advantage, which looked like a Patriots birthright since the day the season started, is no longer guaranteed.Left tackle Sebastian Vollmer, one of the last guys in the huddle on Tom Brady's Christmas card list, was carted off the field with a leg injury. Mike Garafolo of Fox Sports reported the injury could cost Vollmer "a few weeks."With so many players injured, the Patriots offense looked terrible except for one fourth-quarter drive.Don't Be So UpsetSome combination of offensive veterans like Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman should return for the postseason.The Patriots took a playoff-desperate divisional foe with a great defense to overtime on the road despite their injury plague, so the gloom and doom is relative.They're the Patriots.Bottom LineThe Patriots need to get at least some of Brady's weapons back in the postseason.They still milk more mileage out of role players, bench players, special teams, coaching, experience and Brady-ness than any other NFL team. But they are so depleted right now that even all of those advantages may not be enough.Panthers (20-13 loss to Falcons)Why It's UpsettingThe Panthers went,in three lackluster hours,from a once-per-decade powerhouse to a team that may have to travel to Arizona for a playoff game.Did you see the Cardinals-Packers game' The Panthers don't want to mess with the Cardinals in Arizona.Cam Newton ran seven times, endured two sacks and absorbed about 97 hits, often taking four or five shots at the end of a run. The Panthers could really use a week off from Newton injury Russian roulette.Ted Ginn Jr. suffered a knee injury. The injury did not appear serious, and he would return to the game, but the Panthers offense had no downfield capability without him.Don't Be So UpsetThe defense played well most of the afternoon, except for some Julio Jones super-heroics.The Panthers could probably do without the "perfection" storyline. There are a lot of inexperienced players on the roster who could benefit from the kind of mental reboot that comes from a loss.Bottom LineHumble pie goes down more smoothly in late December than mid-January. The Panthers' biggest enemy is not themselves or momentum. It's the Cardinals.Stock WatchThis week's Stock Watch rounds up key players (and coaches) from many of the playoff hopefuls and determines who is ready to bring his A-game into the postseason.Bruce AriansWhile every other Super Bowl contender was in survival mode Sunday, Arians' Cardinals did things to the Packers in a 38-8 victory that piranhas do when you throw a dead frog in the water.Aaron Rodgers took eight sacks, many of them vicious (though legal). Tyrann Mathieu is out for the year, but Justin Bethel (one interception) and others stepped in without incident. The Cardinals offense was its usual mix of Carson Palmer quick strikes and solid running by a rotating cast of backs. It was beautifully brutal.The Cardinals have won their past two games by a combined 78-25 score. They haven't lost since Week 6, and their obliteration of the Packers rounds out a "quality wins" list that includes the Bengals, Seahawks and Vikings. Arians has his expendables ready to beat anyone: Panthers, Patriots, anyone. Rising.Anthony Barr, Linval Joseph and Harrison SmithThe Vikings have been without three of their best defenders for several weeks. But safety Smith, linebacker Barr and defensive tackle Joseph all returned Sunday night against the Giants.Smith made his presence felt with a pick-six. Barr and Joseph were statistically quieter, but the Giants accomplished nothing on offense for most of the evening. The Vikings' 49-17 victory was spurred by the defense, with the offense mopping up short drives and generating field goals until things got silly at the end.Joseph and Smith are Pro Bowl-level performers. Barr is an all-purpose linebacker with 2.5 sacks, three forced fumbles and an interception for the season. The Vikings played well in their absence but weren't going to accomplish anything in the playoffs without them.After Sunday night's victory, they can win the NFC North by beating the Packers next week. Rising.Kirk CousinsCousins has become a good quarterback. Not a good quarterback for the circumstances or a good quarterback compared with the alternative.Not a quarterback who finds a way or just wins.Cousins is now a bona fide NFL starter with a variety of positive attributes: a quick release, great timing with his tight end and some other targets, sound decision-making chops (give or take that weird kneel spasm before halftime) and solid overall athletic traits.Let's hold the "great" quarterback, "franchise" quarterback or (shudder) "elite" quarterback labels until he beats a team with a winning record, which hasn't happened yet this season. But a "good" quarterback gives a franchise hope, both for a playoff upset and (assuming he stays in Washington, which he will) for doing something more in 2016. Rising.Rob GronkowskiGronk caught four passes for 86 yards, including two crucial fourth-down catches late in the game. But Gronk was held to one 30-yard catch on two targets in the first half, and Brady threw an interception straight into Darrelle Revis' arms while looking for Gronk.The Jets slid either Revis or Antonio Cromartie over to cover Gronkno matter where he lined up on most snaps. That's how it is going to be until the Patriots get some offensive weapons back: Gronk versus the top cornerback, with opponents daring Brady to beat them with someone else.Brady is rapidly running out of someone elses. Steady.DeAndre HopkinsHopkins had to keep a Brandon Weeden-led offense humming for Houston. He caught seven passes for 117 yards and a touchdown, with most of the production against poor Coty Sensabaugh, who could be nominated for Best Supporting Actor in Someone Else's Highlight Reel.Julio Jones is great. Antonio Brown is great. DeAndre Hopkins is the best receiver in the NFL right now.The other two have the support of veteran quarterbacks and decent-to-great fellow receivers. Hopkins is almost a one-man offense.J.J. Watt will do what Watt does (including a fourth-quarter strip-sack in Sunday's 34-6 defeat of the Titans), but Hopkins is the Texans' only hope for generating enough offense for a postseason upset. Rising.Jets Defensive LineThe Patriots rushed for 63 yards. They were 1-of-10 on third-down conversions.The Jets defense: a) disrupted New England's game plan by eliminating the run; and b) stuffed some short-yardage plays. Sheldon Richardson recorded a sack. Muhammad Wilkersonand Leonard Williams put hits on Brady.Many likely AFC playoff teams are run-oriented, including the Texans, Chiefs and latter-day Broncos. The Jets allow just 81.5 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry, with just two rushing touchdowns allowed all season.If the Jets reach the playoffs, Wilkerson and Co. could prove to be first-round equalizers. Rising.Josh NormanJulio Jones caught nine passes for 178 yards and one touchdown for the Falcons, often with Norman in coverage. This means, of course, that Norman is an overrated fraud, and so is Cam Newton.No, it actually means Jones is an outstanding player and NFL rules are designed to give great receivers the edge over great cornerbacks. Also, Jones' game-changing 70-yard touchdown came against safety Kurt Coleman and linebacker Luke Kuechly in deep coverage after a scramble drill, not Norman.So Norman remains one of the game's best cornerbacks, but give Jones credit for showing what a wide receiver can accomplish when he doesn't spend half the game throwing a hissy fit.Steady.Aaron RodgersSomeone get this poor guy an aspirin. And a left tackle. And a wide receiver. Falling.Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio BrownRoethlisberger targeted Brown 11 times Sunday, not counting a few passes that resulted in penalties. Brown caught seven passes for 61 yards. He was also the intended target for two interceptions and nearly a third (a pick-six from the Ravens goal line was negated by a penalty).Brown also just missed catching a touchdown pass (it was ruled no catch) and spent much of the afternoon catching shallow crosses instead of the long bombs that carried the Steelers into the playoff picture.Jimmy Smith covered Brown for much of the afternoon. Smith is a veteran, while the rest of the Ravens secondary is populated by castoffs from other organizations like Kyle Arrington and Shareece Wright.You would think Martavis Bryant or Markus Wheaton would be open all day against the depleted Ravens secondary, yet Bryant and Wheaton combined for just four receptions. Also, the Ravens couldn't stop the run, yet DeAngelo Williams got just 17 carries, eight of them in the first quarter.The Steelers have too many weapons to lose to a bad opponent when one weapon has an off game. If the Steelers reach the playoffs, Roethlisberger must return to November form and take some receivers besides Brown with him. Falling.Alex SmithSmith has always had an unusual skill set. He possesses the best pop-up slide in the NFLafter a 29-yard scramble, he hopped back on his feet like Rickey Henderson dusting himself off and preparing to steal third base.He has the drive-and-dish game of a slashing point guardhe completed a pass to Travis Kelce in the red zone by scrambling toward the line until Kelce's defender peeled off to make a tackle, then floating the ball to his tight end for a three-pointer from the corner.Whenever a football player is praised using baseball and basketball metaphors, it probably means he threw for just 125 yards against a bad defense and spent the entire second half playing punt-and-pin in a 17-13 win.The Chiefs came within a last-minute defensive stop from joining the upset brigade at the start of the article. They will go as far as Smith can take them this year. We're almost there. Steady.Performance BonusesOffensive Line BonusThe Ravens offensive line was tasked with protecting a fourth-string quarterback against a defense snarling to clinch a playoff berth. They responded by blowing open holes so Javorius Allenand Terrance West could combine for 121 rushing yards while Mallett took just one sack in 42 drop-backs.So let's reward someone on the Ravens besides Justin Tucker with a bonus for once: Kudos to Kelechi Osemele, Ryan Jensen, John Urschel, Marshal Yanda and Ricky Wagner!Special Teams BonusBlair Walshkicked five field goals for the Vikings in the late game, including 52- and 53-yarders.Remember the preseason and early season, when Walsh was in an epic slump' Remember when kicker slumps were a major storyline'Good kickers, including Walsh, just needed to physically and psychologically adjust to the new extra-point rules.Unsung Defensive Hero BonusKendall Langford has quietly had a solid season for the Colts. But it is hard to be a pass-rushing lineman for the Colts.Outside linebackers are supposed to generate most of the pressure in the Chuck Pagano-Greg Manusky system, but the Colts' outside linebackers are not all that great, and neither is the Pagano-Manusky system. Langford pressured a lot of quarterbacks this season, but usually, no one was available to turn those hurries into sacks.Langford sacked Ryan Tannehill twice Sunday, part of a six-sack frenzy that helped the Colts hold off the Dolphins 18-12.The Colts are still mathematically alive, and they owe it to the fact the Dolphins essentially quit a few weeks ago. Oops, I mean they owe it all to some excellent play along the defensive line!Meaningless Fantasy Touchdown BonusBy the time Eddie Lacy rumbled 28 yards for a receiving touchdown from Rodgers, the Cardinals already held a 31-point lead on the Packers.But if either Lacy or Rodgers did just enough to win your fantasy Super Bowl, you didn't care. Chances are, however, you lost to the person who threw a waiver claim at the Saints' Tim Hightower last month (and got 169 yards from scrimmage plus two touchdowns from him Sunday).Fantasy Leech BonusThe Lions couldn't let the season end and the rebuilding era begin without providing a little more fantasy frustration.TJ Jones caught a 29-yard touchdown pass, just to remind gamers out there that both Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate can be used as decoys.The Lions then felt guilty and let Megatron catch a one-yard touchdown on a slant later in the game.Fantasy gamersand the Lions, reallycould have used about seven more of those this season.Great-Coaching BonusWith the Patriots offense struggling and Bill Belichick speed-dialing Troy Brown and Matt Light to determine if anyone is in playing shape, coordinator Josh McDaniels called the following sequence:First-down: Flea-flicker bomb to Rob Gronkowski, from a six-lineman formation with newcomer Steven Jackson as the running back. Incomplete.Second down: End-around to Brandon LaFell. Gain of nine.Third down: Direct-snap play to Brandon Bolden. Yes, the Patriots voluntarily snapped a football to someone besides Brady, who was last seen kinda sorta blocking on the previous end-around. (A Jets defender saw Brady squaring to block and side-stepped him, probably saying "Pardon me, sir.")Fourth down: Nifty rollout pass to James White for 13 yards.The Patriots still had to settle for a field goal. But the trick-play sequence did more than show how far the Patriots will go to manufacture points during an injury crisis: a)It will occupy about 25 hours of opponents' preparation time in the postseason. And b)It serves as McDaniels' audition tape for the Titans' head coaching job.As for kicking off in overtime, Bill Belichick would have looked like a genius if the Jets punted, allowing Tom Brady to lead a field-goal drive for the win instead of one last chance for the Jets. (He looks like a genius anyway because about 92 percent of these decisions pay off for him.)It was a calculated risk based on how both his offense and defense were playing. Bob Costas called for a revision of overtime rules to guarantee both teams get a chance no matter what during his Sunday night halftime manifesto, which only serves to illustrate that nothing is truly controversial until it causes the Patriots to lose.Mystery Touch BonusThis was a big week for fake punts. Tim Masthay ran a successful fake for the Packers, Jordan Poyer for the Browns and Isa Abdul-Quddus for the Lions.But Browns tackle Mitchell Schwartz earns this week's bonus by hauling in a pass from Johnny Manziel at the end of a madcap scramble.No, Schwartz was not an eligible receiver. Yes, the reception was wiped out by a penalty, because Schwartz is not allowed to catch footballs. But when Johnny Football is on the run, you have to be ready for anything!Last CallYou may have heard by now that Peyton Manning is the subject of HGH allegations stemming from an Al Jazeera undercover investigation that led to an Indiana clinic.We have already heard vehement denials from Peyton Manning and nearly everyone associated with him, a video recant of any incriminatory statements he may have been audiotaped making by the improbably named Charlie Sly, the arrival of former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer in Manning's camp for extra spin control, and a partridge in a pear tree.All that for a story that is less than 48 hours old, about alleged events from four years ago.A bold prediction: We will never get to the bottom of this story. Even if Ted Wells gets involved. Especially if Ted Wells gets involved. (Breaking news: Manning replaced his cellphone sometime between 2011 and Saturday afternoon.)And even if the skies part and a booming Charlton Heston-like voice bellows THOU HAST TAKEN PERFORMANCE-ENHANCERS at the exact moment Manning gets zapped with a lightning bolt, it still won't mean anything.The collective bargaining agreement for HGH covers failed HGH tests, not juice reports from a foreign news agency of alleged events from four years ago. And the penalty for a failed HGH test (which never actually happens anyway) is a four-game suspension, not wiping away passing records, not blocking entry to the Hall of Fame and not giving Tom Brady three extra Super Bowl rings just for being so pure.So the only question left that can ever really be answered is the one I expect to be asked by radio hosts about 2,377 times in the next few months:What will this do to Peyton Manning's legacy'The answer: Whatever you want it to.There's no such thing as an objective "legacy" in sports anymore. We each keep a little legacy in our hearts, a private head-canon of the players we choose to admire or despise.You can hate Tiger Woods, LeBron James, Alex Rodriguez, Manning or Brady all you want. You can find reasons to hate Derek Jeter, Phil Mickelson or Drew Brees if you try. You can love Lance Armstrong, for his charitable efforts or something. And no matter how extreme your opinions, you will find kindred souls out there on some blog or Twitter feed.Major League Baseball has a Hall of Fame and a separate Hall of Indignation full of players a big percentage of baseball fans believe belong in the Hall of Fame. The NCAA record book is a Swiss cheese of retcons, like a comic book universe: Did the Fab Five ever really happen, or was that a dream sequence'What's official according to the record books does not matter when it comes to "legacies," and there is no "mainstream opinion" in my business, where the arguments themselves are the commodity.Chances are, how you feel about Manning after the report is no different from how you felt about Manning before it. The same went for Tom Brady and deflated footballs. If even the whisper of past use of a banned substance erodes your respect for a player you once liked, that's your prerogative. But sports fandom has probably been a rough road for you, and it will never get any better.I think of athletes the way I think of movie or rock stars. Some are great humans, some are disgusting, some are haunted by demons, some succumb easily to temptation, and most, like you and I, are some combination of all four. Unless they cure a disease or commit a heinous crime, their "legacy" consists of what they accomplished on the field/court/ice/track/etc.But that's just my definition of "legacy." Yours is just as valid. And no twist or turn in the Manning story is likely to change it.Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.
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