It's roughly 99 percent certain that the Buccaneers will draft a quarterback on the last weekend of April. It's also about 99 percent certain that the Seahawks willnotdraft a quarterback. Everything in between is speculation, projection, hearsay, smokescreen and out-and-out guesswork.Oh, perhaps there's a little more certainty than that. The Patriots and Colts aren't exactly quarterback shopping, for present or future. The Jets and Bills can't be as comfortable with their current platoons as they pretend to be. The Rams areon recordstating that they plan to draft a quarterback, even after the Nick Foles-Sam Bradford trade. The Cowboys have become candid about discussing a post-Romo future. Chip Kelly would give up a kidney for the chance to draft Marcus Mariota. General manager Howie Roseman's kidney, to be sure, but a kidney's a kidney.Just how likely is your favorite team to draft a quarterback' To find out, I put my ear to the ground, surveyed all 32 teams, took stock of their depth charts and organizational histories and calculated the back-of-the-envelope probability that each team will select a quarterback in the first four rounds..Even the Patriots (especially the Patriots) are capable of grabbing some kid late in the draft to see if he develops into a punt returner or someone to trade to the Texans after a few years. Let's focus on real investments with a real chance to at least wear the "heir apparent" label, if not compete for an immediate starting job.Whether these teams plan to enter the Mariota Sweepstakes or to make the most of some Brett Hundley-Bryce Petty consolation prize, here are the odds that each team will walk away from the draft with a new quarterback.(Note: Chances were calculated based on immediate and future need, expected draft priorities, depth chart space, the estimated future potential and spot starter capability of backups, public endorsements or other statements by teams about quarterbacks and the likelihood that each franchise's decision-maker will drink six cups of coffee and completely change his mind 15 minutes before the draft begins).32. New England PatriotsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Jimmy Garoppolo (2ndround, 2014)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):5From Ryan Mallett to Garoppolo, the Patriots have been aggressive about spending early draft picks on Brady insurance policies that can later be used as trade bait. But Garoppolo is entrenched as the heir apparent right now, and the Patriots need this draft to restock other shelves after free agency.Brady may ascend to Valhalla when his contract expires after 2017, leaving Garoppolo the keys to paradise. Brady could instead extend his contract, with Garoppolo following Josh McDaniels to the Browns in two years. Butbarring a cliff-diving mishap, nothing is happening at the end of April.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):Less than 1 percent31. Seattle SeahawksLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Russell Wilson (3rdround, 2012)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):3The quarterback depth chart behind Wilson is populated by guys with more initials than starts (B.J. Daniels, R.J. Archer), though veteran caddie Tarvaris Jackson is still waiting in the lobby of the journeyman quarterback employment agency for his number to be called. A seventh-round flyer is likely, but this year's early rounds and organizational resources will be devoted to making sure the Seahawks can protect, support and afford the quarterback they already have.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):Less than 1 percent30. Pittsburgh SteelersLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Landry Jones (4thround, 2013)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):3The Steelers just extended Ben Roethlisberger's contract and have never been players in the draft-and-develop game at quarterback. Jones' expiration date as a prospect has not arrived yet, and Bruce Gradkowski has inherited Charlie Batch's ceremonial backup-for-life clipboard. The Steelers need to use this draft to get their average defensive age below the Military History Channel viewer demographic, anyway.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):3 percent29. Green Bay PackersLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Brian Brohm (2ndround, 2008)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):5Ted Thompson prefers to find Aaron Rodgers' backups in the seventh round (Matt Flynn, still unsigned but hanging around the coffee shop with Tarvaris Jackson) or through his signature waiver wire Dumpster dives (Scott Tolzien). Unless Rodgers injures himself celebrating a Sam Dekker three-pointer next week, the Packers won't be making any quarterback moves.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):3 percent28. Atlanta FalconsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Matt Ryan (1stround, 2008)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):3The Falcons re-signed T.J. Yates to back up Matt Ryan, Sean Renfree is entering his third season on the third string, and coach Dan Quinn said at last week's league meetings thatthe Falcons could add Matt Schaubif they need veteran depth. Matt Schaub as a Falcons backup again' If we are coming full circle, why not consider Michael Vick' Or David Archer'Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):4 percent.27. Minnesota VikingsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Teddy Bridgewater (1stround, 2014)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):5Teams rarely draft a quarterback the year after a high-round rookie seizes the starting job because: A) There are only so many meaningful practice reps to go around, and the young starter needs all available developmental resources; B) It sends a mixed message that can be counterproductive; and C) Why the heck would they want to' Bridgewater is the face of the Vikings' future, Shaun Hill is on hand as a journeyman-for-hire, and the Vikings have plenty of other offseason work to do.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):5.75 percent26. Jacksonville JaguarsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Blake Bortles (1stround, 2014)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):2See the Vikings comment. Interesting fact: The Jaguars either draft a quarterback high in the first roundBortles last year, Blaine Gabbert in 2011, Byron Leftwich in 2003or they do not draft a quarterback at all. David Garrard was a fourth-round pick in 2002, but since then, the Jaguars have never tossed a mid-to-late-round pick at the quarterback position in search of a late-blooming prospect or some extra competition. Instead, they littered their deep bench with the likes of Quinn Gray, Luke McCown, Trent Edwards and Todd Bouman, with Chad Henne eating innings whenever Gabbert or Bortles faltered in recent years.The Jaguars probably should have done more speculating at quarterback instead of giving Gabbert 50 chances and living and dying with Garrard for so long. They now hope that Bortles makes their quarterback past a moot point.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):5.75 percent25. Baltimore RavensLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Joe Flacco (1stround, 2008)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):5Ozzie Newsome's modus operandi for backing up Flacco has been to grab a Tyrod Taylor (2011) or Keith Wenning (2014) in the sixth round; even before that, Newsome used fifth- or sixth-round picks to select Troy Smith (2006) and Derek Anderson (2005). With Taylor gone, look for a similar strategy this year. The Ravens racked up a compensatory pick in the fourth round and two in the fifth, so the potential to seek late-round bargains is certainly there. But the Ravens have other things to worry about before that.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):6.5 percent24. Indianapolis ColtsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Andrew Luck (1stround, 2012)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):3The Colts' quarterback draft probability may look a little high. That's because I really did use a calculation method for this wacky exercise, and the Colts rang three statistical bells. First, Luck's only backup is Matt Hasselbeck, who would be totally grey if he had any hair at all, and no third stringer on the depth chart means a likely slot for a third- or fourth-round pick. Second, teams earned a "volatility" score based on just how unpredictable they are on the transaction wire, and the Colts are pretty volatile. Finally, they earned a few points for "filling needs via free agency," freeing them to potentially do something eccentric in the draft. That said, the chance that the Colts will do anything except grab a seventh rounder remains low.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):7.25 percent.23. Oakland RaidersLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Derek Carr (2ndround, 2014)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):4See the Vikings comment. The Raiders have no interest in pushing/threatening Carr right now, but may have some interest in adding competition to the Christian Ponder/Matt McGloin bench.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback:7.5 percent22. Cincinnati BengalsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Andy Dalton (2nd, 2011)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):4The Bengals are committed to Dalton and have A.J. McCarron on hand as the capable young semi-prospect/backup. They may bring back Jason Campbell (ordering his second cup of coffee at the Tarvaris-Flynn Cafe) for emergencies, but they have no use for another young arm. Bengals fans who complain about Dalton must always take a few deep breaths and remember they could have been born Browns fans.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):8.75 percent21. New York GiantsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Ryan Nassib (4thround, 2013)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):3You know how when Egyptian pharaohs died, their favorite servants were killed, mummified and entombed with them so they could continue to serve in the afterlife' It's gonna be like that for Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. Coughlin and Giants co-owner Steve Tischmade soothing noisesat the league meetings about Eli's contract (up at season's end), while backup Nassib still passes the young prospect sniff test. There's a small chance they will add clipboard competition for Nassib, but the Giants are a no-nonsense organization that will spend this draft the way they spend every draft: selecting players that will help them survive their annual midseason crippling injury rash.Chance of Drafting a quarterback(Rounds 1-4):9.5 percent20. Detroit LionsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Matthew Stafford, (1stround, 2009)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):3Stafford's backups are Kellen Moore and Dan Orlovsky. Ndamukong Suh's departure moved the Lions out of the eighth circle of salary-cap hell and into one of the nicer circles, where they just get buffeted by heavy winds, the kind that can blow Moore passes back into his face. But they still must solve many of their problems as cheaply as possible. Don't be too surprised if they grab a size-arm project like Sean Mannion in the third or fourth round, both as injury insurance and a gentle reminder to Stafford that nothing, not even his mighty contract, lasts forever.Chance of Drafting a quarterback(Rounds 1-4):9.75 percent19. Arizona CardinalsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Logan Thomas (4thround, 2014)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):4Bruce Arians loves Thomas. He loves him enough tonot play him, keeping the unprepared rookie on the bench during last season's playoff run, so he would not adopt bad habits or become emotionally scarred by postseason failure. Instead, Ryan Lindley scarred us all. At any rate, Arians sees a top prospect in Thomas, even if most of the rest of us just see a beefier Christian Ponder.Arians' Logan love keeps the Cardinals from ranking higher on the quarterback draft scale: Thomas has "top prospect on the bench" status, which would not normally be reserved for a guy who couldn't wrest a start from Ryan Lindley. Arians probably won't create a logjam on the Cardinals bench, and for a playoff team, the Cardinals have more than their share of other draft needs.Chance of Drafting a quarterback(Rounds 1-4):15 percent18. Carolina PanthersLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Cam Newton (1stround, 2011)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):4.You know what we haven't heard in a while' Faint, backhanded, obviously motivational praise of Newton emanating directly from the Panthers organization. Here'sRon Riverafrom last week's league meetings:I do expect to see him take another step as he continues to work on his position-specific skills and techniques. He relies so much on his great athleticism that sometimes he's not as sound as he needs to be with his fundamentals. That's the next step.Oh, there it is!Newton was one of two players who kept the Panthers from crashing down into the ACC last season, but the Panthers are in no rush to extend his contract, allowing him to play out his fifth-year option right now. No matter what Newton does, there's always a sense that the Panthers organization has become its own message board troll and really thinks the team would be better off with Derek Anderson and some spunky newcomer.The Panthers are too needy all over the roster to play theLet's Motivate Cam to Improve His Fundamentalsgame. They are also too unpredictable to dismiss when it comes to making a statement draft selection.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):16.25 percent.17. Denver BroncosLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Brock Osweiler (2ndround, 2012)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):5Heir apparent quarterbacks are like baking soda boxes in the fridge. You have to replace them every four years or else they get stale.(What' I am supposed to replace the baking soda' No wonder the lettuce crisper smells like biology lab on dissection day). Case in point: The Patriots drafted Ryan Mallett the same year the Broncos selected Osweiler, but they traded Mallett and freshened up to Jimmy Garoppolo last year.With the Peyton Manning retirement event horizon racing toward them, the Broncos must provide Osweiler with some competition for the throne. They could wait for the late rounds to see if a made-for-Gary-Kubiak play-action passer like Chris Bonner stays on the board. But with the 2016 starting job possibly at stake, they may not want to wait that long.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):16.75 percent16. Kansas City ChiefsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Brodie Croyle (3rdround, 2006)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):4From Steve DeBerg, Joe Montana, Elvis Grbac and Trent Green through Matt Cassel and Alex Smith, the Chiefs have been importing their quarterbacks from other franchises for over a generation. Things may change now that Clark Hunt has taken over the family business, but they also may not: HuntlikesSmith as his quarterback and Andy Reid as his coach, so don't expect the Chiefs to reach for their quarterback of the future.Then again, Reid once drafted Kevin Kolb in the second round despite his devotion to Donovan McNabb, so he'll pounce on the quarterback market if he loves a prospect. The Chiefs depth chart is teeming with the likes of Chase Daniel, Terrelle Pryor, Tyler Bray and Aaron Murray. Graft Bray's arm and Pryor's legs onto Murray's body, insert Daniel's brain, and you've got a hell of a backup. The Chiefs may opt for the middle rounds of the draft instead of crimes against humanity.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):21 percent15. Miami DolphinsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Ryan Tannehill (1stround, 2012)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):4Pat White's retirement from the CFL last week reminded us that the Dolphins were kings of the second-round quarterback selection from 2007 through 2009. Their takeaway from that era: White (a Wildcat lava lamp), Chad Henne (now the Jaguars backup) and John Beck (a 26-year-old prospect who now works at a quarterback academy). Tannehill may be a slow developer, but he sure beats the alternatives.The Dolphins will use their fifth-year option to keep Tannehill locked up through 2016 and have retained Matt Moore for clipboard duties. There is space at the bottom of the depth chart, and the Dolphins met most of their other needs in free agency, but if Miami has any interest in seeking long-range contingency plans, this is not the draft in which to do it. Better to keep investing in motivated weapons and linemen who don't turn the locker room into Degrassi so Tannehill can succeed, than to start seeking alternatives.Chance of Drafting a quarterback(Rounds 1-4):21.25 percent14. New Orleans SaintsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Danny Wuerffel (4thround, 1997)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):2The Saints haven't drafted a quarterback in the first three rounds since they took Dave Wilson first overall in 1981. The last quarterback they drafted inanyround was Sean Canfield, a seventh rounder in 2010. They traded for Drew Brees, traded for Aaron Brooks and smuggled Bobby Hebert out of the USFL to keep the offense busy between Dome Patrol linebacker beatdowns of the late 1980s. In between, they just made do with lousy quarterbacking.All bets are off with Brees aging and the Saints trying to wake up from a salary-cap nightmare. The team held aneveryone-but-Brees-is-availablesidewalk sale during free agency. If their daring trades don't jolt them back into the playoffs, it's full-scale rebuilding time. The quarterback depth chart consists of The Other McCown Brother and practice-squad ping-pong-ball Ryan Griffin. The Saints are prime candidates to take a chance on Garrett Grayson or Shane Carden, heady undersized guys (like Brees) who could fit Sean Payton's system better than any other.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):25.25 percent13. San Francisco 49ersLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Colin Kaepernick (2ndround, 2011)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):4If you have any idea what the 49ers will do next, you are either kidding yourself or are a member of the Baalke family. Blaine Gabbert is all alone on the depth chart behind Kaepernick, who is one of the few remaining holdovers from the epic regime change of12 weeks ago' That's all it's been' Anyway, there are two things stopping the Baalke-Jed York-Jim Tomsula troika from using the draft as a Kaepernick ultimatum: No one after the top three prospects is even a remote threat to Kaepernick, and the 49ers have myriad needs right now.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):27.75 percent12. San Diego ChargersLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Charlie Whitehurst (3rdround, 2006)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):3The Chargers are our first Mariota Sweepstakes entrant, though they are the biggest longshots. What's certain is that the Chargers and Philip Rivers are facing the same midlife crisis the Steelers and Giants are going through with Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning, but they have been reluctant to renew their vows. Rivers' contract expires at the end of the season, he turns 34 in December and his backups are Kellen Clemens and Brad Sorensen. Even if you don't believe the Titans-Chargers trade voodoo, the Chargers appear likely to grab a Brett Hundley or Bryce Perry to develop behind Rivers for a year or three.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):28.25 percent11. Dallas CowboysLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Stephen McGee (4thround, 2009)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):2The Cowboys have ignored the quarterback position in the draft, even in the final rounds, since Tony Romo rose from the practice squad to stardom a decade ago. But Romo won't live forever (his contract will be used to snuff out the sun, but that's another matter).Backup Brandon Weeden is like Gabrielle Carteris fromBeverly Hills 90210:obviously a little too old for his role as the plucky young supporting player. The Cowboys are talking openly about the post-Romo future, and the possibility of drafting Johnny Manziel turned into an episode ofDallasin Dallas last year. If the Joneses see something they like in the early middle roundsBryce Petty looks like the kind of fella who could catch their eyesthey may do something they haven't done for a long time.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4): 29.5 percent10. Buffalo BillsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):EJ Manuel (1stround, 2013)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):3Rex Ryansoundslike he wants to give Manuel a fair shot to compete for a starting job. When a head coach starts talking about "ball spin" and other details, it's a much more ringing endorsement than "he's our starting quarterback right now, on a Tuesday afternoon in March."The Bills also signed both Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor, Jeff Tuel is still hiding behind the blocking sled in the equipment shed, and Ryan is talking straight-facedly (for him) about four-way competition.In other words, the Bills don't sound eager to leap into the Mariota Sweepstakes. Even if Tuel is displaced and Ryan's four-quarterback grand scheme comes to fruition, meaningful reps will be hard to come by, if the Bills expect open Manuel-Cassel competition.That said, the Bills solved a lot of problems in free agency, and Ryan could easily switch to an alternate plan: relegate Cassel to clipboard sensei status and challenge Manuel to hold off a rookie challengermaybe even Mariotaas long as he can.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):40 percent9. Houston TexansLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Tom Savage (4thround, 2014)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):3Maybe you think Ryan Mallet and Brian Hoyer are just two generations of generic Baby Bradys. Maybe you think Savage is just off-brand catnip for draft analysts of the Mayock School. (The school motto: "Tall + Good Arm = Can't Miss!") No matter how low your opinion of the Texans' three quarterbacks, it's hard to see how Houston gains much by adding a fourth. By the time Mallet and Savage get their developmental reps and Hoyer throws enough to stay sharp, the fourth guy will have nothing to do but mow the practice field and play scout team Blake Bortles.The Texans may be motivated to leap if Mariota plummets into their hands or Brett Hundley is hanging around in the second or third round. After that, there is no one in this draft class with more talent and upside than Savage.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):40.75 percent8. Chicago BearsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Kyle Orton (4thround, 2005)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):4Think of this whole offseason as one long Jay Cutler exit strategy. Acquisitions like Pernell McPhee and Antrel Rolle will make the Bears defense more competitive without spending draft picks. The Brandon Marshall trade freed some cash while adding a late-round pick for roster reshaping. The Bears have two second-round picks, plus two picks each in Rounds 4 through 6. They can refill the cupboards in preparation for that glorious, magical day when Cutler disappears like the Cheshire Cat, leaving behind only his sneer.Those extra second- and fourth-round picks provide extra opportunities to pounce on a Cutler replacement. Pacehas statedthat he "wouldn't be afraid to take" Marcus Mariota if the quarterback were there when the Bears select seventh overall. Pace probably wouldn't be afraid to give new offensive coordinator a toolsy Sean Mannion or Brett Hundley to play with later in the draft. But getting stuck with Cutler in 2016 because the Bears haven't even tried to groom a replacement' That would be positively terrifying.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):49 percent7. Philadelphia EaglesLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Matt Barkley (4thround, 2013)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):4The chance of Chip Kelly doing just about anything at this pointtrading Sam Bradford before he plays a down, blaming Howie Roseman for global warming, producing a 100 percent accurate Final Four bracket he swears he filled out on Christmas Eve, starting a zombie apocalypse with tainted protein shakeshovers at about 52.5 percent these days.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):52.5 percent6. St. Louis RamsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Sam Bradford (1stround, 2010)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):4Jeff Fisher says that the Rams will draft a quarterback, so there's that. But Fisher could be lying...or could change his mind...or the Rams could plan to select a quarterback in the sixth round.Nick Foles isn't the kind of acquisition that makes you rewrite your draft board, and while backup Austin Davis showed some promise in extended work last season, he looked just good enough to remain "backup Austin Davis" for many years. The Rams are stacked at many positionsthey have enough defensive linemen to stock a whole division at this pointand can jump on a quarterback prospect they like without opening a hole elsewhere.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):56.375 percent5. Tennessee TitansLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Jake Locker (1stround, 2011)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):4The Titans have the second pick in the draft, and Zach Mettenberger sits atop their depth chart. In typical circumstances, there would not be much mystery here. But Ken Whisenhunt has eclectic tastes in quarterbacks. The flame-throwing Mettenberger is a better prospect than the usual sixth-round pick. Defenders like Leo Williams or Dante Fowler would represent safe, significant upgrades for the talent-poor Titans. And there are several other franchises likely to get Mariota ants in their pants.It would be easy to poke fun at the Titans for waiting for some Browns-Eagles-Titans threesome to materialize that leaves the Eagles with Mariota, the Browns with Sam Bradford and the Titans with 24 additional draft picks in the next three years, except that there's still a chance something like that will happen.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):68.5 percent4. New York JetsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Geno Smith (2ndround, 2013)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):7Hey, no one's giving up on Geno Smith. And no one doubts that Ryan Fitzpatrick can run around in circles and throw dump-offs while the broadcasters swoon. (He's so smart! He's from Harvard! Dig that groovy beard!) But Todd Bowles probably wants a quarterback who won't suddenly string together month-long 40 percent completion rate slumps and doesn't turn routine plays into heroic Hobbit quests. That's why half the Jets organization attended a private Mariota workout, and why the Jets will take a long look at the Brett Hundley tier of quarterbacks if they get outflanked for Mariota.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):69.5 percent3. Cleveland BrownsLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Johnny Manziel (1stround, 2014)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):5Only the Browns can face a no-win quarterback decision a month before they even enter the draft. If they draft a quarterback early, they obviously turn the page on Manziel and return to their eternal quarterback treadmill. If they don't draft a quarterback, they take an enormous leap of faith that Manziel can climb from rehab to on-field competence in the timeframe between now and the moment they realize Josh McCown cannot play at all, which will occur in early August.The Browns almost have to draft a quarterback just to make sure they have the necessary warm bodies. Otherwise, Connor Shaw is likely to get a long look in the window between McCown's meltdown and Manziel's reintroduction. Of course, the Browns could still wrest Sam Bradford away from the Eagles. Bradford, not the Eagles, may be the one who needs convincing. Peter Kinghas hintedthat Bradford was reluctant to discuss contract extensions with the Browns for some reason. If the Browns do get the ever-injured Bradford, it meansConnor Shaw will probably start some games.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):67.75 percent2. Washington RedskinsLast QBs Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Robert Griffin III andKirk Cousins (1st and 4thround, respectively, 2012)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):5Jay Gruden restated at the league meetings that Griffin is his starting quarterback, as of that exact moment in March when he was speaking. He said the same thing at the combine in February. Gruden should be forced to update his relationship status with Griffin twice per week during the offseason. It can be a Facebook page, or maybe a cellphone alert system. Or maybe the Redskins need a sign outside their Virginia practice facility, like the Smokey Bear forest fire signs outside state parks. "Chance of Griffin Criticism Today: Moderate. Please, no campfires."The Redskins are hosting a Mariota workout. General Manager Scot McCloughan was hired to restore sanity to the depth chart. And Gruden doesn't want to keep reciting the Griffin Oath every morning. Griffin may well get one more chance to compete for a starting job, but it won't be against Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):72.75 percent1. Tampa Bay BuccaneersLast QB Drafted (Rounds 1-4):Mike Glennon (3rdround, 2013)Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2005 (Total):4The Buccaneers are drafting a quarterback. If Jameis Winston gets arrested tomorrow for crashing an oil tanker into a manatee preserve, they will just draft Mariota. Or possibly just draft Winston and send a check to the manatees.Chance of Drafting a Quarterback(Rounds 1-4):Greater than 99 percentMike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.
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