Boca Raton Bowl Betting: Temple vs. Toledo Odds, Analysis and Pick

Toledo did a great job making money this season, going 8-2-1 against the spread on its way to a nine-win campaign; Temple wasn't too bad itself in that endeavor, going 9-4 ATS on its way to 10 wins. The offensive-minded Rockets meet the defensive-minded Owls in the Boca Raton Bowl.Boca Raton Bowl point spread:The Owls opened as one-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 37.0-27.2 RocketsWhy the Owls can cover the spreadTemple began this season 7-0, with wins over Penn State and Cincinnati, then suffered a tough 24-20 loss to Notre Dame. The Owls then won three of their last four games to clinch the AAC's East Division title. Unfortunately, Temple gave one of its poorer performances of this season in the conference championship game, losing at Houston 24-13.The Owls actually outgained the Cougars 385-339, but an early turnover turned into a Houston touchdown, and Temple never recovered, missing ATS as a six-point dog.The Owls can run a bit pedestrian on offense, although they did manage to average 31 points per game this season. And their defense ranks 17th in the country overall, 16th in scoring, allowing just 19 points per game.Why the Rockets can cover the spreadToledo also opened this season 7-0 with victories over Arkansas, Iowa State and Arkansas State. The Rockets then lost to Northern Illinois, won two more in a row, but then, with the MAC West title on the line, lost at home to Western Michigan in the season finale, 35-30.Toledo outrushed and outgained the Broncos, but a fumbled punt late in the first half, the Rockets' only turnover of the day, turned into a Western Michigan touchdown, basically costing Toledo the game.The Rockets have now outgained and outrushed eight of their last nine opponents.Toledo will play this bowl under new head coach Jason Candle, after Matt Campbell left to take over at Iowa State. A change like that can cause some turbulence, but it can also create an atmosphere of camaraderie, as a team pulls together in an unusual situation.Smart pickTemple owns the edge on defense, and that's often a good way to bet bowl games, but Toledo's balance on offense will help to negate that advantage. The smart money here rides the Rockets.Betting trendsTemple is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games against Toledo.Temple is 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games.The total has gone under in 10 of Temple's last 14 games against the MAC.All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
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